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A light breeze rising over calm water initiates an intricate chain of events that culminates in a centimetres-deep turbulent shear layer capped by gravity–capillary ripples. At first, viscous stress accelerates a laminar wind-drift layer until small surface ripples appear. The surface ripples then catalyse the growth of a second instability in the wind-drift layer, which eventually sharpens into along-wind jets and downwelling plumes, before devolving into three-dimensional turbulence. In this paper, we compare laboratory experiments with simplified, wave-averaged numerical simulations of wind-drift layer evolution beneath monochromatic, constant-amplitude surface ripples seeded with random initial perturbations. Despite their simplicity, our simulations reproduce many aspects of the laboratory-based observations – including the growth, nonlinear development and turbulent breakdown the wave-catalysed instability – generally validating our wave-averaged model. But we also find that the simulated development of the wind-drift layer is disturbingly sensitive to the amplitude of the prescribed surface wave field, such that agreement is achieved through suspiciously careful tuning of the ripple amplitude. As a result of this sensitivity, we conclude that wave-averaged models should really describe the coupled evolution of the surface waves together with the flow beneath to be regarded as truly ‘predictive’.